Braga v Gent: analysis and our pick
UEFA Europa Conference League · today 22:00. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Braga looking for a response
Braga have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–2 home defeat to Gil Vicente and a 0–3 away defeat at FC Copenhagen. Gent have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 3–3 away draw with Rochefort and a 1–0 home win over Aarhus.
An even head-to-head
In the last 2 meetings: 0 wins for Braga, 2 draws, 0 for Gent, with 3.0 goals a game. Most recently: Gent 2–2 Braga (24 Nov 2016).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 65%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 45%. Braga score 0.6 and concede 1.6 a game, Gent 1.8 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.1 + 1.5 = 2.6 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Gent · 44%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 75%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Gent have the highest probability (44%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 75% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Braga — last game: Against Gil Vicente (1-2) they had 64% of the shots (18 to 10, on target 6-4). From 6 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 4 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 57% of the shots and 58% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 16% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 57% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Gent — last game: Against Aarhus (1-0) they had 85% of the shots (23 to 4, on target 4-1). From 4 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 0 from 1 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 56% of the shots and 61% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 27% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 14% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Gent) 4.75 → 3.90 (-17.9%, backed) · Double chance X2 2.15 → 1.91 (-11.2%, backed) · 1 (Braga) 1.67 → 1.85 (+10.8%, drifting) · X (draw) 3.90 → 3.70 (-5.1%, backed). The market is moving the same way as our pick.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.