Bournemouth v AC Milan: analysis and our pick
UEFA Europa League · tomorrow 22:00 · Vitality Stadium. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Bournemouth in good form
Bournemouth have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–0 home win over Sunderland and a 3–0 home win over SK Sturm Graz. AC Milan have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 3–2 home win over Atalanta and a 4–0 away win at Red Bull Salzburg.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 95%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 60%. Bournemouth score 1.6 and concede 1.4 a game, AC Milan 2.2 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 1.5 = 3.1 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Bournemouth · 40%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 83%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Bournemouth have the highest probability (40%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 83% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Bournemouth — last game: Against Sunderland (2-0) they had 91% of the shots (29 to 3, on target 6-0). From 6 shots on target they scored 2, faced no shots on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Sunderland). Over the last 5 they averaged 64% of the shots and 61% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 35% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 47% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. AC Milan — last game: Against Atalanta (3-2) they had 48% of the shots (11 to 12, on target 6-4). From 6 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 2 from 4 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 55% of the shots and 64% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 37% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 29% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Double chance X2 1.62 → 1.73 (+6.8%, drifting) · Double chance 1X 1.36 → 1.30 (-4.4%, backed) · Both teams score 1.57 → 1.62 (+3.2%, drifting) · 2 (AC Milan) 3.20 → 3.30 (+3.1%, drifting).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.