Besiktas v Crystal Palace: analysis and our pick

Besiktas in good form

Besiktas have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–2 away defeat at Trabzonspor and a 3–2 away win at 1899 Hoffenheim. Crystal Palace have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–5 away defeat at Brighton and a 2–3 away defeat at Lyon.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 75%, both teams scored 55%. Besiktas score 2.2 and concede 1.8 a game, Crystal Palace 1.0 and 2.2. The Poisson model expects 2.3 + 1.0 = 3.2 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Besiktas · 65%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 63%). Most likely score: 2–0.

Why these picks?

Besiktas have the highest probability (65%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 63% from the same lambdas. 2–0 is the most likely score (10%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Besiktas — last game: Away to Trabzonspor (0-2) they had 57% of the shots (17 to 13, on target 6-8). From 6 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 8 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 60% of the shots and 53% of the shots on target (on top in 5 of 5). They turn 34% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 32% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Crystal Palace — last game: Away to Brighton (0-5) they had 23% of the shots (5 to 17, on target 1-9). From 1 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 5 from 9 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 39% of the shots and 43% of the shots on target. They turn 31% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 52% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3.