Ararat-Armenia v AZ Alkmaar: analysis and our pick
UEFA Europa League · tomorrow 19:45 · Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Ararat-Armenia in good form
Ararat-Armenia have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–0 away win at BKMA and a 1–3 away defeat at Jagiellonia. AZ Alkmaar have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–2 away draw with Cambuur and a 2–1 home win over Hapoel Beer Sheva.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 55%. Ararat-Armenia score 2.0 and concede 1.0 a game, AZ Alkmaar 1.0 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.3 = 2.7 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Ararat-Armenia · 41%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 77%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Ararat-Armenia have the highest probability (41%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 77% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Ararat-Armenia — last game: Away to Jagiellonia (1-3) they had 52% of the shots (15 to 14, on target 4-5). From 4 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 3 from 5 on target. Over the last 2 they averaged 52% of the shots and 44% of the shots on target. They turn 125% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 60% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. AZ Alkmaar — last game: Away to Cambuur (2-2) they had 39% of the shots (7 to 11, on target 4-6). From 4 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 2 from 6 on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Cambuur). Over the last 5 they averaged 53% of the shots and 54% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 23% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 32% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Over 3.5 2.38 → 2.30 (-3.4%, backed) · Under 3.5 1.57 → 1.62 (+3.2%, drifting).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.