Ajax v Atalanta: analysis and our pick
UEFA Europa Conference League · tomorrow 22:00 · Johan Cruijff Arena. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Atalanta have a chance to respond
Ajax have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 5–2 away win at Groningen and a 1–2 away defeat at HNK Hajduk Split. Atalanta have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 2–3 away defeat at AC Milan and a 3–1 home win over Pafos.
The head-to-head favours Atalanta
In the last 2 meetings: 0 wins for Ajax, 1 draw, 1 for Atalanta, with 2.5 goals a game. Most recently: Ajax 0–1 Atalanta (9 Dec 2020).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 75%, both teams scored 75%. Ajax score 2.8 and concede 1.6 a game, Atalanta 1.8 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 2.2 + 1.6 = 3.8 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Ajax · 51%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 73%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Ajax have the highest probability (51%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 73% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (9%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Ajax — last game: Away to Groningen (5-2) they had 48% of the shots (15 to 16, on target 11-5). From 11 shots on target they scored 5, conceded 2 from 5 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 68% of the shots and 67% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 35% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 40% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Atalanta — last game: Away to AC Milan (2-3) they had 52% of the shots (12 to 11, on target 4-6). From 4 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 3 from 6 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 59% of the shots and 52% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 35% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 38% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 4.50 → 5.00 (+11.1%, drifting) · Under 2.5 2.25 → 2.30 (+2.2%, drifting) · Over 2.5 1.62 → 1.60 (-1.2%, backed).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.