Aarhus v Egnatia Rrogozhinë: analysis and our pick
UEFA Europa Conference League · tomorrow 22:00 · Cepheus Park. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë have a chance to respond
Aarhus have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–1 away draw with FC Copenhagen and a 0–1 away defeat at Gent. Egnatia Rrogozhinë have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 3–1 home win over Vllaznia Shkodër and a 1–1 home draw with Midtjylland.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 65%. Aarhus score 1.6 and concede 1.0 a game, Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1.8 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 1.6 = 3.0 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Egnatia Rrogozhinë · 42%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 81%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Egnatia Rrogozhinë have the highest probability (42%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 81% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Aarhus — last game: Away to FC Copenhagen (1-1) they had 23% of the shots (7 to 24, on target 3-7). From 3 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 7 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 30% of the shots and 34% of the shots on target. They turn 73% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 24% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Egnatia Rrogozhinë — last game: Against Midtjylland (1-1) they had 43% of the shots (10 to 13, on target 5-5). From 5 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 5 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 43% of the shots and 50% of the shots on target. They turn 120% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 80% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Not both to score 1.91 → 1.83 (-4.2%, backed) · Over 2.5 1.70 → 1.73 (+1.8%, drifting) · Both teams score 1.80 → 1.83 (+1.7%, drifting) · Under 2.5 2.10 → 2.08 (-1%, backed).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.