1899 Hoffenheim v Lyon: analysis and our pick
UEFA Europa League · tomorrow 22:00 · Prezero Arena. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
1899 Hoffenheim looking for a response
1899 Hoffenheim have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 2–1 away win at Borussia Monchengladbach and a 2–3 home defeat to Besiktas. Lyon have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–1 home win over Nice and a 3–2 home win over Crystal Palace.
An even head-to-head
In the last 3 meetings: 0 wins for 1899 Hoffenheim, 3 draws, 0 for Lyon, with 4.7 goals a game. Most recently: 1899 Hoffenheim 2–2 Lyon (7 Nov 2024).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 95%, Over 2.5 80%, both teams scored 75%. 1899 Hoffenheim score 1.4 and concede 2.4 a game, Lyon 2.4 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 1.8 + 1.9 = 3.7 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Lyon · 41%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 71%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Lyon have the highest probability (41%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 71% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (10%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
1899 Hoffenheim — last game: Away to Borussia Monchengladbach (2-1) they had 61% of the shots (14 to 9, on target 8-3). From 8 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 3 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 58% of the shots and 52% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 32% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 60% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 1 theirs. Lyon — last game: Against Nice (2-1) they had 40% of the shots (8 to 12, on target 4-5). From 4 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 5 on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Lyon). Over the last 5 they averaged 48% of the shots and 56% of the shots on target. They turn 38% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 24% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Not both to score 2.50 → 2.62 (+4.8%, drifting) · 2 (Lyon) 3.25 → 3.40 (+4.6%, drifting) · Both teams score 1.50 → 1.44 (-4%, backed) · 1 (1899 Hoffenheim) 2.00 → 1.95 (-2.5%, backed). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.