Sporting CP v LASK Linz: analysis and our pick
UEFA Champions League · today 22:00 · Estádio José Alvalade. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Sporting CP in good form
Sporting CP have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–0 away win at Lens and a 3–1 away win at Braga. LASK Linz have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 4–0 away win at Austria Lustenau and a 3–6 home defeat to Liverpool.
The head-to-head favours LASK Linz
In the last 3 meetings: 1 win for Sporting CP, 0 draws, 2 for LASK Linz, with 3.7 goals a game. Most recently: Sporting CP 1–4 LASK Linz (1 Oct 2020).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 95%, Over 2.5 75%, both teams scored 65%. Sporting CP score 2.2 and concede 1.0 a game, LASK Linz 2.4 and 2.4. The Poisson model expects 2.0 + 2.0 = 3.9 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · LASK Linz · 39%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 75%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
LASK Linz have the highest probability (39%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 75% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (9%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Sporting CP — last game: Away to Lens (2-0) they had 34% of the shots (11 to 21, on target 5-6). From 5 shots on target they scored 2, the defence faced 6 shots on target and held (no goals). Over the last 5 they averaged 45% of the shots and 51% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 52% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 25% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. LASK Linz — last game: Away to Austria Lustenau (4-0) they had 77% of the shots (23 to 7, on target 10-2). From 10 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 0 from 2 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 52% of the shots and 53% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 57% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 63% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (LASK Linz) 11.00 → 13.00 (+18.2%, drifting) · Double chance X2 4.00 → 4.50 (+12.5%, drifting) · X (draw) 7.00 → 6.25 (-10.7%, backed) · Under 2.5 3.40 → 3.50 (+2.9%, drifting). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.