Rodopa Smolyan v Gigant Saedinenie: analysis and our pick

Rodopa Smolyan looking for a response

Rodopa Smolyan have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–5 away defeat at Dimitrovgrad and a 3–0 home win over Levski Karlovo. Gigant Saedinenie have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–3 away defeat at Levski Karlovo and a 3–0 home win over Lokomotiv Plovdiv II.

The head-to-head favours Rodopa Smolyan

In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for Rodopa Smolyan, 0 draws, 2 for Gigant Saedinenie, with 2.4 goals a game. Most recently: Gigant Saedinenie 1–2 Rodopa Smolyan (21 Mar 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 60%. Rodopa Smolyan score 2.0 and concede 2.6 a game, Gigant Saedinenie 1.6 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 2.0 + 1.7 = 3.7 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Rodopa Smolyan · 44%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 72%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Rodopa Smolyan have the highest probability (44%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 72% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (9%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Rodopa Smolyan — last game: Against Levski Karlovo (3-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Gigant Saedinenie — last game: Against Lokomotiv Plovdiv II (3-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots..