Real Madrid v RB Leipzig: analysis and our pick
UEFA Champions League · today 22:00 · Santiago Bernabéu Stadium. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Real Madrid in good form
Real Madrid have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 4–1 home win over Sevilla and a 4–3 away win at AS Roma. RB Leipzig have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–6 away defeat at Bayern Munich and a 1–0 home win over PSV Eindhoven.
The head-to-head favours Real Madrid
In the last 4 meetings: 2 wins for Real Madrid, 1 draw, 1 for RB Leipzig, with 2.5 goals a game. Most recently: Real Madrid 1–1 RB Leipzig (6 Mar 2024).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 80%, both teams scored 55%. Real Madrid score 2.6 and concede 1.6 a game, RB Leipzig 2.6 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 2.4 + 1.4 = 3.8 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Real Madrid · 58%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 72%). Most likely score: 2–1.
Why these picks?
Real Madrid have the highest probability (58%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 72% from the same lambdas. 2–1 is the most likely score (9%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Real Madrid — last game: Against Sevilla (4-1) they had 58% of the shots (15 to 11, on target 8-5). From 8 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 1 from 5 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 50% of the shots and 49% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 48% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 29% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 2 theirs. RB Leipzig — last game: Away to Bayern Munich (1-6) they had 28% of the shots (11 to 29, on target 4-17). From 4 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 6 from 17 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 49% of the shots and 41% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 45% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 20% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 3 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (RB Leipzig) 10.00 → 11.00 (+10%, drifting) · Under 1.5 10.00 → 11.00 (+10%, drifting) · X (draw) 6.50 → 7.00 (+7.7%, drifting) · Double chance X2 3.75 → 4.00 (+6.7%, drifting).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.