Ratchaburi v Pattani: analysis and our pick
FA Cup · today 15:00 · Dragon Solar Park. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Pattani have a chance to respond
Ratchaburi have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–1 away win at Chiangrai United and a 0–1 away defeat at Kyoto Sanga. Pattani have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–1 home defeat to Buriram United and a 2–3 away defeat at Port FC.
The head-to-head favours Pattani
In the last 1 meetings: 0 wins for Ratchaburi, 0 draws, 1 for Pattani, with 2.0 goals a game. Most recently: Pattani 2–0 Ratchaburi (28 Dec 2025).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 60%. Ratchaburi score 2.0 and concede 0.8 a game, Pattani 0.8 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 2.0 + 1.4 = 3.4 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Ratchaburi · 50%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 66%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Ratchaburi have the highest probability (50%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 66% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (10%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Ratchaburi — last game: Away to Chiangrai United (2-1) they had 43% of the shots (13 to 17, on target 6-5). From 6 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 5 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 47% of the shots and 60% of the shots on target. They turn 48% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 29% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Red cards: 1 theirs. Pattani — last game: Against Buriram United (0-1) they had 14% of the shots (3 to 18, on target 0-6). No shots on target, conceded 1 from 6 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 39% of the shots and 30% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 50% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Pattani) 7.00 → 6.50 (-7.1%, backed) · X (draw) 5.00 → 4.75 (-5%, backed) · 1 (Ratchaburi) 1.33 → 1.36 (+2.3%, drifting). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.