Persija v Arema FC: analysis and our pick
Liga 1 · today 15:00 · Bung Karno Stadium. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Persija in good form
Persija have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–3 away defeat at Persita and a 4–0 away win at PSIM Yogyakarta. Arema FC have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–3 away defeat at Garudayaksa and a 2–2 home draw with Bhayangkara FC.
The head-to-head favours Persija
In the last 3 meetings: 2 wins for Persija, 0 draws, 1 for Arema FC, with 3.0 goals a game. Most recently: Persija 3–1 Arema FC (6 Aug 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 60%. Persija score 2.0 and concede 0.8 a game, Arema FC 2.2 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 1.9 + 1.4 = 3.3 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Persija · 49%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 63%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Persija have the highest probability (49%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 63% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Persija — last game: Against Java United (1-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots..
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Arema FC) 5.75 → 6.50 (+13%, drifting) · Double chance X2 2.60 → 2.88 (+10.8%, drifting) · X (draw) 4.33 → 4.75 (+9.7%, drifting) · 1 (Persija) 1.40 → 1.33 (-5%, backed). The market is moving the same way as our pick.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.