Neftochimic Burgas v Sayana Haskovo: analysis and our pick

Neftochimic Burgas in good form

Neftochimic Burgas have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 0–4 home defeat to CSKA 1948 and a 3–1 away win at Rozova dolina. Sayana Haskovo have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 3–2 away win at Sekirovo Rakovski and a 1–1 home draw with Botev Plovdiv II.

The head-to-head favours Neftochimic Burgas

In the last 2 meetings: 1 win for Neftochimic Burgas, 1 draw, 0 for Sayana Haskovo, with 1.5 goals a game. Most recently: Neftochimic Burgas 0–0 Sayana Haskovo (24 Apr 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 95%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 55%. Neftochimic Burgas score 1.8 and concede 1.2 a game, Sayana Haskovo 2.2 and 0.6. The Poisson model expects 1.3 + 1.3 = 2.6 goals.

Our pick

Away win (2) · Sayana Haskovo · 37%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 76%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Sayana Haskovo have the highest probability (37%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 76% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Neftochimic Burgas — last game: Away to Rozova dolina (3-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 4 they averaged null% of the shots.. Sayana Haskovo — last game: Against Botev Plovdiv II (1-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots..