Levski Krumovgrad v Lokomotiv Plovdiv II: analysis and our pick

Levski Krumovgrad in good form

Levski Krumovgrad have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–1 home win over Zagorets and a 2–1 away win at Sozopol. Lokomotiv Plovdiv II have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 5, including a 1–2 home defeat to Sozopol and a 0–3 away defeat at Gigant Saedinenie.

The head-to-head favours Levski Krumovgrad

In the last 2 meetings: 1 win for Levski Krumovgrad, 1 draw, 0 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv II, with 3.5 goals a game. Most recently: Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 1–1 Levski Krumovgrad (9 Apr 2022).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 100%, Over 2.5 80%, both teams scored 55%. Levski Krumovgrad score 2.2 and concede 0.8 a game, Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 0.8 and 3.6. The Poisson model expects 3.1 + 1.2 = 4.3 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Levski Krumovgrad · 74%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 80%). Most likely score: 3–1.

Why these picks?

Levski Krumovgrad have the highest probability (74%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 80% from the same lambdas. 3–1 is the most likely score (8%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Levski Krumovgrad — last game: Away to Sozopol (2-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Lokomotiv Plovdiv II — last game: Away to Gigant Saedinenie (0-3) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 2 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 2.