Levski Karlovo v Spartak Plovdiv: analysis and our pick

Levski Karlovo looking for a response

Levski Karlovo have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 3–0 home win over Gigant Saedinenie and a 0–3 away defeat at Rodopa Smolyan. Spartak Plovdiv have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–2 home defeat to Arda Kardzhali and a 2–0 home win over Dimitrovgrad.

The head-to-head favours Spartak Plovdiv

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Levski Karlovo, 0 draws, 3 for Spartak Plovdiv, with 3.0 goals a game. Most recently: Spartak Plovdiv 1–3 Levski Karlovo (26 Apr 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 45%. Levski Karlovo score 1.2 and concede 1.6 a game, Spartak Plovdiv 1.4 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 2.1 = 3.6 goals.

Our pick

Away win (2) · Spartak Plovdiv · 53%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 69%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Spartak Plovdiv have the highest probability (53%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 69% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (10%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Levski Karlovo — last game: Away to Rodopa Smolyan (0-3) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1. Spartak Plovdiv — last game: Against Dimitrovgrad (2-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots..