Levante v Athletic Club: analysis and our pick

Athletic Club have a chance to respond

Levante have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–1 away draw with Deportivo La Coruna and a 3–3 home draw with Sevilla. Athletic Club have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 0–0 away draw with Valencia and a 1–0 away win at Real Sociedad.

The head-to-head favours Athletic Club

In the last 5 meetings: 0 wins for Levante, 1 draw, 4 for Athletic Club, with 3.0 goals a game. Most recently: Athletic Club 4–2 Levante (8 Feb 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 65%, Over 2.5 45%, both teams scored 45%. Levante score 1.4 and concede 2.2 a game, Athletic Club 1.0 and 0.2. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.7 = 3.2 goals.

Our pick

Away win (2) · Athletic Club · 43%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 62%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Athletic Club have the highest probability (43%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 62% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Levante — last game: Away to Deportivo La Coruna (1-1) they had 46% of the shots (11 to 13, on target 4-5). From 4 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 5 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 45% of the shots and 47% of the shots on target. They turn 30% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 42% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Athletic Club — last game: Away to Valencia (0-0) they had 36% of the shots (9 to 16, on target 2-3). From 2 shots on target they scored 0, the defence faced 3 shots on target and held (no goals). Over the last 5 they averaged 64% of the shots and 63% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 11% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 1 (Levante) 3.30 → 3.60 (+9.1%, drifting) · Under 2.5 1.91 → 1.80 (-5.8%, backed) · X (draw) 3.50 → 3.30 (-5.7%, backed) · Over 2.5 1.91 → 2.00 (+4.7%, drifting). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.