Leotar v Velež Nevesinje: analysis and our pick
1st League - RS · today 15:30. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Leotar in good form
Leotar have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 1–0 home win over Laktaši and a 2–1 away win at FK Romanija Pale. Velež Nevesinje have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 2–3 home defeat to FK Romanija Pale and a 0–3 away defeat at FK Majevica Lopare.
The head-to-head favours Velež Nevesinje
In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Leotar, 1 draw, 3 for Velež Nevesinje, with 2.0 goals a game. Most recently: Leotar 2–0 Velež Nevesinje (1 Nov 2025).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 45%. Leotar score 2.6 and concede 0.4 a game, Velež Nevesinje 1.2 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 2.1 + 0.8 = 2.9 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Leotar · 65%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 79%). Most likely score: 2–0.
Why these picks?
Leotar have the highest probability (65%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 79% from the same lambdas. 2–0 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.