Istogu v Ramiz Sadiku: analysis and our pick

Istogu looking for a response

Istogu have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–1 away defeat at 2 Korriku and a 2–0 away win at Rilindja 1974. Ramiz Sadiku have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–3 away defeat at Trepça'89 and a 0–0 home draw with Ferizaj.

The head-to-head favours Ramiz Sadiku

In the last 2 meetings: 0 wins for Istogu, 1 draw, 1 for Ramiz Sadiku, with 3.5 goals a game. Most recently: Ramiz Sadiku 2–1 Istogu (7 Feb 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 65%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 45%. Istogu score 0.6 and concede 0.8 a game, Ramiz Sadiku 1.2 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 1.3 = 2.9 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Istogu · 43%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 79%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Istogu have the highest probability (43%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 79% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Ramiz Sadiku — last game: Away to Trepça'89 (1-3) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1.