Inter v Shakhtar Donetsk: analysis and our pick
UEFA Champions League · today 22:00 · San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Inter in good form
Inter have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 3–1 away win at Bologna and a 3–4 home defeat to Club Brugge KV. Shakhtar Donetsk have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–1 home win over Kolos Kovalivka and a 3–1 home win over AEK Athens.
The head-to-head favours Inter
In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Inter, 3 draws, 0 for Shakhtar Donetsk, with 1.4 goals a game. Most recently: Inter 2–0 Shakhtar Donetsk (24 Nov 2021).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 95%, Over 2.5 75%, both teams scored 55%. Inter score 2.6 and concede 1.4 a game, Shakhtar Donetsk 2.8 and 0.4. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.4 = 2.9 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Inter · 37%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 81%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Inter have the highest probability (37%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 81% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Inter — last game: Away to Bologna (3-1) they had 61% of the shots (17 to 11, on target 8-4). From 8 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 1 from 4 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 62% of the shots and 68% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 4). They turn 39% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 54% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Shakhtar Donetsk — last game: Against Kolos Kovalivka (2-1) they had 71% of the shots (12 to 5, on target 2-3). From 2 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 3 on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Kolos Kovalivka). Over the last 5 they averaged 67% of the shots and 65% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 93% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 25% of theirs. Red cards: 0 theirs, 3 for opponents.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Shakhtar Donetsk) 13.00 → 12.00 (-7.7%, backed) · X (draw) 7.00 → 6.50 (-7.1%, backed) · 1 (Inter) 1.20 → 1.22 (+1.7%, drifting). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.