Home United v Tampines Rovers: analysis and our pick

Home United in good form

Home United have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–0 away win at Albirex Niigata S and a 1–0 away win at Wofoo Tai Po. Tampines Rovers have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 4–1 home win over Young Lions and a 0–1 home defeat to Machida Zelvia.

The head-to-head favours Home United

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Home United, 2 draws, 1 for Tampines Rovers, with 2.0 goals a game. Most recently: Tampines Rovers 3–2 Home United (17 May 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 55%. Home United score 2.0 and concede 0.6 a game, Tampines Rovers 2.2 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 1.6 = 3.3 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Home United · 40%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 65%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Home United have the highest probability (40%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 65% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Home United — last game: Away to Wofoo Tai Po (1-0) they had 68% of the shots (17 to 8, on target 3-2). From 3 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 0 from 2 on target. Over the last 3 they averaged 68% of the shots and 60% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 3). They turn 233% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 100% of theirs. Tampines Rovers — last game: Against Young Lions (4-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 9% of the shots and 0% of the shots on target., opponents 67% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1.