Hadiya Hosaena v Welwalo Adigrat Uni: analysis and our pick

Welwalo Adigrat Uni have a chance to respond

Hadiya Hosaena have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–1 home draw with Welayta Dicha and a 0–1 home defeat to Bahardar. Welwalo Adigrat Uni have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–4 home defeat to Al Ahli Tripoli and a 1–1 away draw with Halaba Ketema.

The head-to-head favours Hadiya Hosaena

In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for Hadiya Hosaena, 0 draws, 2 for Welwalo Adigrat Uni, with 2.2 goals a game. Most recently: Welwalo Adigrat Uni 0–1 Hadiya Hosaena (22 Jun 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 45%, Over 2.5 10%, both teams scored 35%. Hadiya Hosaena score 0.6 and concede 0.6 a game, Welwalo Adigrat Uni 1.0 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 0.9 + 1.0 = 1.9 goals.

Our pick

Draw (X) · 35%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 70%). Most likely score: 0–0.

Why these picks?

The 1-X-2 probabilities are close and the draw comes out on top in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 70% from the same lambdas. 0–0 is the most likely score (17%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Hadiya Hosaena — last game: Against Bahardar (0-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 3 they averaged 50% of the shots and 33% of the shots on target. They turn 100% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 50% of theirs. Welwalo Adigrat Uni — last game: Away to Sidama Bunna (2-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 2 they averaged 50% of the shots and 50% of the shots on target. They turn 300% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 100% of theirs.