Gasogi United v Gorilla: analysis and our pick
National Soccer League · today 16:00 · Kigali Pele Stadium. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Gasogi United looking for a response
Gasogi United have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–2 home defeat to Bugesera and a 1–1 away draw with Sunrise. Gorilla have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 0–0 away draw with Police and a 1–0 home win over Rayon Sports.
The head-to-head favours Gasogi United
In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for Gasogi United, 1 draw, 1 for Gorilla, with 2.8 goals a game. Most recently: Gasogi United 2–1 Gorilla (17 Apr 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 45%, both teams scored 55%. Gasogi United score 0.4 and concede 1.2 a game, Gorilla 1.0 and 0.4. The Poisson model expects 0.7 + 1.0 = 1.8 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Gorilla · 39%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 74%). Most likely score: 0–0.
Why these picks?
Gorilla have the highest probability (39%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 74% from the same lambdas. 0–0 is the most likely score (19%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: 1 (Gasogi United) 2.55 → 2.75 (+7.8%, drifting) · 2 (Gorilla) 2.70 → 2.50 (-7.4%, backed) · X (draw) 2.88 → 2.80 (-2.8%, backed). The market is moving the same way as our pick.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.