Ferizaj v Trepça Mitrovicë: analysis and our pick

Ferizaj in good form

Ferizaj have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 1–0 home win over Mitrovica and a 0–0 away draw with Ramiz Sadiku. Trepça Mitrovicë have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–1 home defeat to Liria Prizren and a 0–2 away defeat at Prishtina e Re.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 50%, Over 2.5 35%, both teams scored 30%. Ferizaj score 1.6 and concede 0.2 a game, Trepça Mitrovicë 0.6 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 0.5 = 2.2 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Ferizaj · 64%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 63%). Most likely score: 1–0.

Why these picks?

Ferizaj have the highest probability (64%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 63% from the same lambdas. 1–0 is the most likely score (18%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Trepça Mitrovicë — last game: Away to Prishtina e Re (0-2) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1.