FC Besa Peja v Tefik Canga: analysis and our pick
Liga E Pare · today 15:00. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
FC Besa Peja looking for a response
FC Besa Peja have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–1 away defeat at Trepça Mitrovicë and a 1–1 home draw with Dinamo Ferizaj. Tefik Canga have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 0–3 home defeat to Suhareka and a 1–2 away defeat at KF Lepenci.
An even head-to-head
In the last 2 meetings: 1 win for FC Besa Peja, 0 draws, 1 for Tefik Canga, with 3.5 goals a game. Most recently: FC Besa Peja 3–1 Tefik Canga (9 May 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 60%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 55%. FC Besa Peja score 0.6 and concede 1.2 a game, Tefik Canga 0.4 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 1.1 = 2.7 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · FC Besa Peja · 47%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 76%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
FC Besa Peja have the highest probability (47%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 76% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.