Ethiopia Bunna v Negelle Arsi: analysis and our pick
Premier League · today 15:00. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Negelle Arsi have a chance to respond
Ethiopia Bunna have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–1 away win at Kedus Giorgis and a 0–1 home defeat to Sheger Ketema. Negelle Arsi have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 0–0 away draw with Mebrat Hayl and a 1–1 away draw with Kedus Giorgis.
The head-to-head favours Ethiopia Bunna
In the last 2 meetings: 2 wins for Ethiopia Bunna, 0 draws, 0 for Negelle Arsi, with 2.0 goals a game. Most recently: Negelle Arsi 0–1 Ethiopia Bunna (26 Feb 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 60%, Over 2.5 40%, both teams scored 35%. Ethiopia Bunna score 1.0 and concede 0.4 a game, Negelle Arsi 0.8 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.2 + 0.8 = 2.1 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Ethiopia Bunna · 44%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 66%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Ethiopia Bunna have the highest probability (44%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 66% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (15%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Ethiopia Bunna — last game: Against Sheger Ketema (0-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Negelle Arsi — last game: Away to Mekelle Kenema (0-3) they had 54% of the shots (7 to 6, on target 2-3). From 2 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 3 from 3 on target. Over the last 3 they averaged 54% of the shots and 40% of the shots on target. They turn 150% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 133% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Over 2.5 2.75 → 3.25 (+18.2%, drifting) · X (draw) 2.70 → 2.55 (-5.6%, backed) · Under 2.5 1.40 → 1.33 (-5%, backed) · 1 (Ethiopia Bunna) 2.50 → 2.60 (+4%, drifting). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.