Como v Manchester United: analysis and our pick
UEFA Champions League · today 19:45 · Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Manchester United have a chance to respond
Como have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 3–1 away win at Fiorentina and a 2–3 away defeat at Feyenoord. Manchester United have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–1 away draw with Leeds and a 0–2 away defeat at Atletico Madrid.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 65%. Como score 1.4 and concede 1.4 a game, Manchester United 1.0 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 1.1 = 2.5 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Como · 42%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 53%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Como have the highest probability (42%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 53% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Como — last game: Away to Fiorentina (3-1) they had 46% of the shots (16 to 19, on target 8-7). From 8 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 1 from 7 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 58% of the shots and 57% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 22% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 29% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Manchester United — last game: Away to Leeds (1-1) they had 50% of the shots (12 to 12, on target 3-5). From 3 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 5 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 53% of the shots and 48% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 25% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 36% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Not both to score 2.38 → 2.62 (+10.1%, drifting) · Under 1.5 5.00 → 5.50 (+10%, drifting) · Under 2.5 2.30 → 2.50 (+8.7%, drifting) · Over 3.5 2.38 → 2.20 (-7.6%, backed).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.