BUL v NEC Nijmegen: analysis and our pick
Premier League · today 16:00 · FUFA Technical Centre. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
BUL in good form
BUL have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–0 away win at UPDF and a 0–0 away draw with Lugazi. NEC Nijmegen have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–0 away win at Kigezi HomeBoyz and a 0–0 home draw with Express.
The head-to-head favours NEC Nijmegen
In the last 5 meetings: 0 wins for BUL, 3 draws, 2 for NEC Nijmegen, with 1.6 goals a game. Most recently: BUL 0–1 NEC Nijmegen (28 Apr 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 60%, Over 2.5 35%, both teams scored 35%. BUL score 2.4 and concede 0.6 a game, NEC Nijmegen 1.8 and 0.4. The Poisson model expects 1.1 + 1.1 = 2.1 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · BUL · 34%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 64%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
BUL have the highest probability (34%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 64% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (15%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (NEC Nijmegen) 3.20 → 3.40 (+6.2%, drifting) · 1 (BUL) 2.25 → 2.15 (-4.4%, backed) · Double chance X2 1.53 → 1.57 (+2.6%, drifting) · Double chance 1X 1.28 → 1.25 (-2.3%, backed). The market is moving the same way as our pick.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.