Bayern Munich v Arsenal: analysis and our pick
UEFA Champions League · today 22:00 · Allianz Arena. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Bayern Munich in good form
Bayern Munich have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 6–1 home win over RB Leipzig and a 3–3 away draw with Viking. Arsenal have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–0 away win at Nottingham Forest and a 3–0 home win over Lille.
The head-to-head favours Arsenal
In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Bayern Munich, 2 draws, 2 for Arsenal, with 2.8 goals a game. Most recently: Arsenal 3–1 Bayern Munich (26 Nov 2025).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 75%, both teams scored 50%. Bayern Munich score 4.0 and concede 1.4 a game, Arsenal 2.0 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 2.2 + 1.5 = 3.7 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Bayern Munich · 52%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 71%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Bayern Munich have the highest probability (52%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 71% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (9%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Bayern Munich — last game: Against RB Leipzig (6-1) they had 73% of the shots (29 to 11, on target 17-4). From 17 shots on target they scored 6, conceded 1 from 4 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 78% of the shots and 78% of the shots on target (on top in 5 of 5). They turn 36% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 44% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs. Arsenal — last game: Away to Nottingham Forest (1-0) they had 39% of the shots (9 to 14, on target 1-2). From 1 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 0 from 2 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 53% of the shots and 61% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 43% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 40% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Under 2.5 2.30 → 2.50 (+8.7%, drifting) · Over 2.5 1.62 → 1.53 (-5.6%, backed) · Not both to score 2.38 → 2.50 (+5%, drifting) · Double chance X2 1.80 → 1.73 (-3.9%, backed).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.