Bangkok v Nong Bua Pitchaya: analysis and our pick

Bangkok in good form

Bangkok have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–1 home draw with Trat FC and a 3–0 away win at Nakhon Pathom. Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 3–4 away defeat at Nakhon Pathom and a 3–1 home win over Chiangmai United.

The head-to-head favours Nong Bua Pitchaya

In the last 4 meetings: 0 wins for Bangkok, 1 draw, 3 for Nong Bua Pitchaya, with 3.3 goals a game. Most recently: Bangkok 0–3 Nong Bua Pitchaya (31 Jan 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 70%. Bangkok score 1.4 and concede 0.8 a game, Nong Bua Pitchaya 2.4 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 1.7 = 3.3 goals.

Our pick

Away win (2) · Nong Bua Pitchaya · 40%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 63%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Nong Bua Pitchaya have the highest probability (40%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 63% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Bangkok — last game: Against Trat FC (1-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 2 they averaged null% of the shots.. Nong Bua Pitchaya — last game: Away to Nakhon Pathom (3-4) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1.