Ayutthaya FC v Muangthong United: analysis and our pick
FA Cup · today 14:30 · Ayutthaya Province Stadium. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Muangthong United have a chance to respond
Ayutthaya FC have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–2 home defeat to Lamphun Warrior and a 1–1 away draw with BG Pathum United. Muangthong United have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–0 away draw with Mahasarakham United and a 0–1 home defeat to Phrae United.
The head-to-head favours Ayutthaya FC
In the last 2 meetings: 1 win for Ayutthaya FC, 1 draw, 0 for Muangthong United, with 2.5 goals a game. Most recently: Muangthong United 0–1 Ayutthaya FC (11 Jan 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 65%, Over 2.5 45%, both teams scored 40%. Ayutthaya FC score 1.0 and concede 1.2 a game, Muangthong United 0.2 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.1 + 0.9 = 2.0 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Ayutthaya FC · 38%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 68%). Most likely score: 0–0.
Why these picks?
Ayutthaya FC have the highest probability (38%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 68% from the same lambdas. 0–0 is the most likely score (15%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Ayutthaya FC — last game: Against Lamphun Warrior (0-2) they had 42% of the shots (11 to 15, on target 3-3). From 3 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 3 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 38% of the shots and 40% of the shots on target. They turn 29% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 24% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs. Muangthong United — last game: Away to Nakhon Pathom (0-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 3 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Muangthong United) 3.50 → 4.20 (+20%, drifting) · Double chance X2 1.73 → 1.91 (+10.4%, drifting) · 1 (Ayutthaya FC) 1.91 → 1.73 (-9.4%, backed) · Double chance 1X 1.22 → 1.17 (-4.1%, backed). The market is moving the same way as our pick.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.