Aston Villa v Viking: analysis and our pick
UEFA Champions League · today 22:00 · Villa Park. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Aston Villa in good form
Aston Villa have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 1–0 away win at Newcastle and a 6–0 home win over Fenerbahce. Viking have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 3–2 home win over Fredrikstad and a 3–3 home draw with Bayern Munich.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 75%, both teams scored 65%. Aston Villa score 3.0 and concede 1.0 a game, Viking 2.8 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.8 + 1.9 = 3.7 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Viking · 40%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 71%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Viking have the highest probability (40%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 71% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (10%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Aston Villa — last game: Away to Newcastle (1-0) they had 48% of the shots (15 to 16, on target 3-1). From 3 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 0 from 1 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 52% of the shots and 63% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 56% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 31% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Viking — last game: Against Fredrikstad (3-2) they had 58% of the shots (11 to 8, on target 4-2). From 4 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 2 from 2 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 40% of the shots and 50% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 67% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 24% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Under 2.5 3.50 → 3.75 (+7.1%, drifting) · Under 3.5 2.00 → 2.10 (+5%, drifting) · Over 3.5 1.80 → 1.73 (-3.9%, backed) · Over 2.5 1.30 → 1.28 (-1.5%, backed).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.