Guadalajara Chivas U21 v Necaxa U21: analysis and our pick
Liga MX U21 · yesterday 18:00. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Guadalajara Chivas U21 in good form
Guadalajara Chivas U21 have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–0 away win at Atlas U21 and a 1–0 home win over Juarez U21. Necaxa U21 have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–2 home defeat to Atlas U21 and a 1–0 away win at Pachuca U21.
The head-to-head favours Necaxa U21
In the last 2 meetings: 0 wins for Guadalajara Chivas U21, 1 draw, 1 for Necaxa U21, with 2.0 goals a game. Most recently: Necaxa U21 1–1 Guadalajara Chivas U21 (22 Apr 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 60%, Over 2.5 45%, both teams scored 45%. Guadalajara Chivas U21 score 1.4 and concede 1.0 a game, Necaxa U21 1.0 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 1.0 = 2.5 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Guadalajara Chivas U21 · 45%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 55%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Guadalajara Chivas U21 have the highest probability (45%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 55% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Necaxa U21 — last game: Away to Pachuca U21 (1-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Necaxa U21). Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.