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Over 1.5 + Poisson · Saturday 17 October
Over 1.5 + Poisson Saturday 17 October: Feyenoord U21 v De Graafschap U21 at 89%
Daily Over 1.5 pick with Poisson + Dixon-Coles (rho = −0.13). The lambdas come from season averages, the last 10 home/away, the last 5 and the head-to-head. The 1 strongest matches of the day.
1. Feyenoord U21 – De Graafschap U21 (U21 Divisie 1, 13:15)
Home λ 2.45 | away λ 1.19 | expected goals 3.64. Over 1.5: 89% | Over 2.5: 70% | BTTS: 65%. Feyenoord U21 2.7 goals/game at home, De Graafschap U21 1.5 away (last 10). H2H average 3.8 goals (5 games). Most likely score 2-1.
The model is statistical: probabilities, not guarantees. The “Poisson Over 1.5” filter on MyGoal90 shows ✓/✗ when each match ends. 21+ · Please gamble responsibly.
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